This system has earned Trades-Own-Strategy (TOS) Certification.
This means that the manager of this system trades his own strategy
in a real-life, funded brokerage account.
Trades-Own-Strategy (TOS) Certification Details
Certification process started
02/02/2024
Most recent certification approved
2/21/24 14:46 ET
Trades at broker
Interactive Brokers (Stocks, Options, Futures)
Scaling percentage used
200%
# trading signals issued by system since certification
33
# trading signals executed in manager's Interactive Brokers (Stocks, Options, Futures) account
33
Percent signals followed since 02/02/2024
100%
This information was last updated
4/5/24 12:59 ET
Warning: System trading results are still hypothetical.
Even though the system developer is currently trading his own system in a real-life brokerage account,
the trading results presented on this Web site must still be regarded as purely hypothetical results.
This is because (among other reasons) the system developer may not have traded all signals,
particularly those that occurred before 02/02/2024,
and the system developer's results may not match the system results presented here. In addition,
not all subscribers have received the same trades or prices as the system manager has. For these reasons, and others, it is extremely important you remember the following:
About the results you see on this Web site
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results.
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.
One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
You may be interested to learn more technical details about
how Collective2 calculates the hypothetical results you see on this web site.
Moonrise
(147204425)
This system has earned Trades-Own-Strategy (TOS) Certification. This means that the manager of this system trades his own strategy in a real-life, funded brokerage account.
| Trades-Own-Strategy (TOS) Certification Details | |
|---|---|
| Certification process started | 02/02/2024 |
| Most recent certification approved | 2/21/24 14:46 ET |
| Trades at broker | Interactive Brokers (Stocks, Options, Futures) |
| Scaling percentage used | 200% |
| # trading signals issued by system since certification | 33 |
| # trading signals executed in manager's Interactive Brokers (Stocks, Options, Futures) account | 33 |
| Percent signals followed since 02/02/2024 | 100% |
| This information was last updated | 4/5/24 12:59 ET |
Warning: System trading results are still hypothetical.
Even though the system developer is currently trading his own system in a real-life brokerage account, the trading results presented on this Web site must still be regarded as purely hypothetical results. This is because (among other reasons) the system developer may not have traded all signals, particularly those that occurred before 02/02/2024, and the system developer's results may not match the system results presented here. In addition, not all subscribers have received the same trades or prices as the system manager has. For these reasons, and others, it is extremely important you remember the following:
About the results you see on this Web site
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.
One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
You may be interested to learn more technical details about how Collective2 calculates the hypothetical results you see on this web site.
Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $29.00 per month.
C2Star
C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.
You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.
Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.
Trend-following
Tries to take advantage of long, medium or short-term moves that seem to play out in various markets. Typically, trend-following analysis is backward looking; that is, it attempts to recognize and profit from already-established trends.Sector: Technology
Focuses primarily on stocks of technology companies.Rate of Return Calculations
Overview
To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.
How Cumulative Rate of Return is calculated
= (Ending_equity - Starting_equity) / Starting_equity
Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.
All results are hypothetical.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | (1%) | +4.4% | (2.7%) | +0.6% |
Model Account Details
A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.
Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.
| Started | $50,000 | |
| Buy Power | $36,574 | |
| Cash | $1 | |
| Equity | $1 | |
| Cumulative $ | $543 | |
| Includes dividends and cash-settled expirations: | $111 | Itemized |
| Total System Equity | $50,543 | |
| Margined | $1 | |
| Open P/L | ($353) | |
| Data has been delayed by 168 hours for non-subscribers | ||
System developer has asked us to delay this information by 168 hours.
Trading Record
symbol.
Statistics
-
Strategy began2/2/2024
-
Suggested Minimum Cap$15,000
-
Strategy Age (days)84.74
-
Age85 days ago
-
What it tradesStocks
-
# Trades20
-
# Profitable8
-
% Profitable40.00%
-
Avg trade duration17.8 days
-
Max peak-to-valley drawdown4.14%
-
drawdown periodMarch 14, 2024 - March 19, 2024
-
Cumul. Return0.6%
-
Avg win$324.50
-
Avg loss$180.33
- Model Account Values (Raw)
-
Cash$36,834
-
Margin Used$0
-
Buying Power$36,574
- Ratios
-
W:L ratio1.25:1
-
Sharpe Ratio0.08
-
Sortino Ratio0.11
-
Calmar Ratio1.247
- CORRELATION STATISTICS
-
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-2.27%
-
Correlation to SP5000.22700
-
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life2.85%
- Return Statistics
-
Ann Return (w trading costs)2.4%
- Slump
-
Current Slump as Pcnt Equity2.90%
- Return Statistics
-
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.006%
- Instruments
-
Percent Trades Optionsn/a
-
Percent Trades Futuresn/a
- Slump
-
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.35%
- Instruments
-
Percent Trades Stocks1.00%
-
Short Options - Percent Covered100.00%
- Return Statistics
-
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.790%
- Instruments
-
Percent Trades Forexn/a
- Return Statistics
-
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)4.7%
- Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
-
Chance of 10% account loss1.00%
-
Chance of 20% account lossn/a
-
Chance of 30% account lossn/a
-
Chance of 40% account lossn/a
-
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)n/a
-
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)n/a
-
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)n/a
-
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)n/a
- Automation
-
Percentage Signals Automatedn/a
- Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
-
Chance of 50% account lossn/a
- Popularity
-
Popularity (Today)0
-
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)329
-
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)344
- Trading Style
-
Any stock shorts? 0/10
- Popularity
-
C2 Score937
- Trades-Own-System Certification
-
Trades Own System?Yes
-
TOS percent200%
- Win / Loss
-
Avg Win$324
-
Avg Loss$180
-
Sum Trade PL (losers)$2,164.000
-
# Winners8
-
Num Months Winners1
- Age
-
Num Months filled monthly returns table3
- Win / Loss
-
Sum Trade PL (winners)$2,596.000
- Dividends
-
Dividends Received in Model Acct112
- AUM
-
AUM (AutoTrader live capital)100945
- Win / Loss
-
# Losers12
-
% Winners40.0%
- Frequency
-
Avg Position Time (mins)25566.00
-
Avg Position Time (hrs)426.10
-
Avg Trade Length17.8 days
-
Last Trade Ago22
- Leverage
-
Daily leverage (average)1.04
-
Daily leverage (max)1.54
- Regression
-
Alpha-0.00
-
Beta0.21
-
Treynor Index0.01
- Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
-
MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.00
-
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat-
-
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat-
-
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)-
-
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy-
-
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)-
-
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.46
-
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-29.123
-
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
-
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.00
-
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
-
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.456
-
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.477
-
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.038
- Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
- RATIO STATISTICS
- Ratio statistics of excess return rates
- Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
-
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.00600
- Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
- Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
-
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01100
- DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
- Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
- assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
-
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-406189000
-
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)5
-
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.50%
Strategy Description
Moonrise is the culmination of 18 months of research and backtesting for strategies that only trade once per month. This trading limitation provides a few hidden benefits. First, it allows the strategy to be implemented in non-margin accounts like IRAs. Second, it lowers churn and fees. Third, the strategy retains a simplicity that reduces the chances of overfitting.
Moonrise picks 4 or 5 ETFs/ETNs each month from a basket of 30. Leveraged and inverse stock and bond ETFs/ETNs are frequently used. As an example, a typical 'bullish' holding might include similar weightings of QLD, ROM, SSO, and TBX.
A 40% annual return with a 15% drawdown is indicated over a 10 year backtest.
Handling of Leveraged ETFs
While leveraged ETFs can provide outsized returns, they also carry outsized risk. Simply put, both gains and losses can be magnified by the use of 3x leverage. During periods of high volatility, Moonrise may switch to a weekly trading cadence, and take small positions in inverse ETFs/ETNs when market downturns occur. The determination of market direction is made algorithmically through indicators that monitor performance of the S&P 500, the NASDAQ 100, and Treasuries over different time frames.
Account Requirements
Moonrise does not use tickers that issue K-1s. Non-margin accounts are supported, and trading frequency is limited to once per week maximum (once per month typically). IB accounts will need to enable 'Complex or Leveraged Exchange Traded Products' under Trading Permissions.
Latest Activity
Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.
Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.
Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.
About the results you see on this Web site
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.
In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results
The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.
- Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
- Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
- All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
- "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.
Trading is risky
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
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This strategy is now visible to the public. New subscribers will be able to follow it.
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Suggested Minimum Capital
This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.